TODAY, as senior U.S. and Russian diplomats conduct negotiations over the 100 thousand Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s eastern border, the Ukraine crisis tops the list of U.S. security threats. By using disruptive tactics, Moscow once again attempts to regain its control over the post-Soviet countries and restore the pre-Cold War security architecture.
The United States and its allies, meanwhile, try to mitigate tensions between Russia and Ukraine, while maintaining the western sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. To thwart Moscow’s ambitions, the U.S., and the west by extension, have two unpropitious strategic options: (1) to continue imposing economic sanctions which previously have not produced long-term results; and (2) to provide military support to Ukraine, if needed, and risk a large-scale conflict escalation between great powers. The difficult choice between the two unfavorable options places Washington in a diplomatic deadlock, which may loosen the U.S. government’s control over transatlantic security.
To prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies have already threatened Moscow with acute sanctions. The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed his intent to find a diplomatic solution to the issue; but if diplomacy fails, the western officials announced to “cut off Russia’s largest financial institutions from global transactions, impose an embargo on American-made or American-designed technology needed for defense-related and consumer industries.” However, sanctions have not scared Russia off previously, and the odds that they will this time may not be too high.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei A. Ryabkov clarified that President Vladimir Putin’s government is not willing to change the course of action until NATO returns to the positions it held before 1997. In pursuit of this ambitious goal, Moscow has disregarded many diplomatic agreements and penalties. With the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Moscow violated the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Russia, along with the U.S. and the U.K., pledged to uphold Ukraine’s territorial integrity in exchange for its nuclear disarmament. The subsequent raft sanctions that the U.S. and its allies imposed on Moscow triggered the Russian Ruble crisis in 2015.
However, the outcome was not severe enough to prevent the Russian military buildup near Ukraine, which might cause military incursion between the two countries yet again. Regardless of the sanctions, Moscow has successfully rebuilt its economy before, and it could do it again.
Another possibility for the U.S. is to provide weapons to Ukraine and contribute troops if the conflict aggravates. With the Kremlin broadcasting a new round of military exercises within striking distance from Ukraine, Washington has already made a shipment of weapons to Kyiv. The Biden administration further suggested that U.S. troops would be deployed soon to strengthen the allies’ defense capacity in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.
Washington has signaled the western determination to protect Ukraine and the Euro-Atlantic zone; but the allies have not agreed on how far they are willing to go to defend Ukraine. Germany, for example, has refused to provide military assistance to Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, its largest natural gas supplier. The U.S., European, Ukrainian, and Russian leaders all understand how high the stakes are in this crisis. The U.S. and European military involvement could aggravate the conflict to a great power war that “could change the world” once again.
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has triggered the greatest crisis in the Euro-Atlantic zone since the Cold War. The security architecture that NATO has been trying to build since 1949 is challenged, and the United States has a pivotal role in settling this geopolitical conundrum. In case of an armed conflict, the U.S. will be left to choose between the less impactful sanctions or a calamitous war. Either can jeopardize the U.S. influence in the Black Sea region, making this crisis significantly important for the country’s national security.